1
1
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
The US stocks moved moderately higher over the course of the trading session on
Wednesday with traders reacting positively to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
decision. The Dow went up up by 0.4 percent to 27,187 and the Nasdaq inched up
by 0.3 percent to 8,304.
The UK stocks edged lower on yesterday as the U.K. readied itself for a December
12 general election and retailer Next said sales in September were hit by unusually
warm weather. The FTSE 100 dipped by 0.1 percent to 7,296.
On domestic front, Indian markets continued their bull run on Wednesday amid
speculation the government may rationalize the tax structure for equities by
November-end. The benchmark BSE Sensex increased by 0.4 percent to 40,052.
News Analysis
US, Canada, Australia approach WTO after India bans import of pulses
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company
Rating
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Blue Star
Buy
846
990
17.0
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
471
532
12.9
Parag Milk Foods
Buy
142
200
40.8
Bata India
Accumulate
1,781
1,865
4.7
KEI Industries
Accumulate
594
612
3.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.6
220
40,052
Nifty
0.5
57
11,844
Mid Cap
0.7
95
14,697
Small Cap
0.4
48
13,431
Bankex
0.2
62
33,838
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
0.4
115
27,187
Nasdaq
0.3
27
8,304
FTSE
(0.1)
(10)
7,296
Nikkei
-0.6
-131
22,843
Hang Seng
-0.4
-120
26,668
Shanghai Com
-0.5
-15
2,939
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,380
1,029
Declines
1,132
791
Unchanged
160
123
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
8,824
NSE
42,377
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
FII
(1,074)
4,303
(2,47,536)
*MFs
(350)
3,291
49,411
Top Gainers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
CENTRALBK
21
15.3
SYNDIBANK
28
11.9
ITI
96
11.0
ITDCEM
55
10.0
SREINFRA
10
10.0
Top Losers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
INFRATEL
183
-5.0
SUVEN
285
-4.9
IIFL
113
-4.3
DISHTV
11
-4.0
SKFINDIA
2174
-3.9
As on Oct 30, 2019
2
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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News Analysis
US, Canada, Australia approach WTO after India bans import of
pulses
Canada, Australia and the USA have moved the World Trade Organisation
(WTO), raising objections over ban on import of certain pulses by India to check
falling prices in the domestic market.
They have also submitted fresh questions on the validity of the steps taken by India
under global trade rules and asked New Delhi to justify the restrictions under
the WTO rules.
India is the biggest producer and consumer of pulses and consumes about 240
lakh tonnes of pulses a year. India had reduced pulses' import from 60 lakh
tonnes to 15-20 lakh tones.
India is moving towards self-reliance in production of pulses. The import ban is
necessary to provide the best prices to farmers. But moong and urad crops have
been damaged due to excessive rain this year, which will be compensated by
import. As pulses fetched good prices over years after the government announced
incentives, farmers started showing interest in its cultivation. It led to quantum
jump in production -- from 231.3 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 to 254.2 lakh tonnes in
2017-18
Economic and Political News
India's marine product exports to China triples to $800 mn in Jan-Sep 2019
Trai releases revised broadcasting norms for a fully compliant audit regime
Food grain may be brought under GST, tax mechanism likely to be rejigged
Govt looking at ways to finance highway projects worth Rs 15 trn: V K Singh
Corporate News
Bandhan Bank fined Rs 1 crore for not bringing down promoter stake
Air India seeks Rs 5,800 cr to refinance bridge loans for 7 Boeing planes
HDFC buys 9.89% stake in Bandhan Bank post RBI’s promoter stake norms
Standard Life sells about 5% stake in HDFC Life Insurance for Rs 5,752 cr
Reliance General Insurance scraps IPO plan; withdraws draft offer documents
3
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd – October 31, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY20E
2QFY19
y-o-y (%)
1QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
1,34,200
1,32,357
1.4
1,31,297
2.2
EBIDTA
6,173
7,237
-14.7
8,573
-28.0
%
4.6
5.5
6.5
PAT
2,787
3,327
-16.2
3,738
-25.4
4
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Top Picks
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Blue Star
81,525
846
990
17.0
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
ICICI Bank
30,43,221
471
532
12.9
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries
47,194
594
612
3.1
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Maruti Suzuki
22,81,973
7,554
8,552
13.2
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Safari Industries
12,562
562
1,000
77.9
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Parag Milk Foods
11,944
142
200
40.8
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank
68,33,659
1,248
1,310
4.9
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M
7,66,677
617
724
17.4
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Amber Enterprises
31,412
999
1,100
10.1
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
Bata India
2,28,888
1,781
1,865
4.7
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
5
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Continued...
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Shriram Transport Finance
2,62,273
1,156
1,385
19.8
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
20,883
1,429
1,740
21.8
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
RBL Bank
1,24,289
289
540
87.1
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
level ROA (1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige
86,323
6,228
7,708
23.8
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a
single product company to offering an entire
gamut of home and kitchen appliances. We
are expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and
25% in PAT over FY2018-20. Maintain Hold.
Larsen & Toubro
20,69,791
1,475
1,850
25.5
The company has a strong order backlog of
~` 3lakh cr. and a very strong pipeline of `9
lakh cr. for FY2020. We are positive on
the prospects of the Company given the
Government’s thrust on Infrastructure with
over 100lakh cr. of investments lined up over
the next 5 years. Reduction in tax rate
for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability for the company.
Ultratech Cement
11,90,084
4,123
4,982
20.8
Post merger of Century textile’s cement
division of 13.4mn TPA from H2FY20
company will have ~110mn TPA of capacity
with a dominant position in West and central
India. We are positive on the long term
prospects of the Company given ramp up
from acquired capacities and pricing
discipline in the industry. Reduction in tax rate
for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability for the company.
Source: Company, Angel Research
6
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Fundamental Call
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
CCL Products
27,058
203
360
81.2
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
Elantas Beck India Ltd
20,040
2,527
2,500
-1.0
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries
19,308
157
256
66.0
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures
plywood & allied products and medium density
fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR
of ~14% to ~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly
due to healthy growth in plywood & lamination
business on the back of strong brand and
distribution network
L&T Finance Holding
1,87,248
94
150
58.1
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Aditya Birla Capital
1,84,889
80
118
48.4
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Nilkamal
18,972
1,272
NA
NA
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Siyaram Silk Mills
11,232
240
NA
NA
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
Music Broadcast Limited
8,435
31
NA
NA
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Inox Winds
7,678
35
NA
NA
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable
energy industry dynamics in favor of wind energy
segment viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-
In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse auction regime and
Government’s guidance for 10GW auction in FY19
and FY20 each.
Ashok Leyland
2,29,412
78
NA
NA
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
1,17,353
115
NA
NA
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom line
front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by FY19 on
back of strong operating margin improvement.
7
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Continued...
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Yes Bank
1,44,859
57
NA
NA
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement
in asset quality to support profitability.
GIC Housing
9,499
176
NA
NA
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over
next two year; change in borrowing mix will
help in NIM improvement
Source: Company, Angel Research
4
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
6.0
6.8
7.7
8.1
8.0
7.0
6.6
5.8
5.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
(%)
4.6
8.4
0.2
2.5
1.6
0.2
2.7
3.2
4.6
1.2
4.3
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-
19
Jun-19
Jul-19
(%)
3.7
3.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
(%)
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
5.4
5.15
4.00
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
(%)
5
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7
6.8
0.7
5.2
5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
9.1
4.0
19.1
10.2
14.6
14.8
17.0
15.2
12.5
16.0
12.2
14.3
13.2
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(x)
6
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,04,745
3.6
3.7
32.0
Russia
Micex
2,747
0.3
-0.7
11.0
India
Nifty
11,474
4.1
-2.7
5.0
China
Shanghai Composite
2,905
0.7
-2.5
3.0
South Africa
Top 40
47,975
-2.8
-0.7
4.2
Mexico
Mexbol
43,416
1.4
-0.1
-9.7
Indonesia
LQ45
942
-4.5
-7.6
5.1
Malaysia
KLCI
1,557
-1.6
-4.7
-8.9
Thailand
SET 50
1,067
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,917
1.9
1.2
1.7
UK
FTSE
7,408
2.8
-0.2
-1.4
Japan
Nikkei
21,756
5.1
2.3
-9.8
Germany
DAX
12,428
4.1
0.2
1.5
France
CAC
5,678
3.6
2.5
3.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 05 October, 2019
7
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Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
8
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Market Outlook
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Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
9
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 31, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
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